I followed his work, and I estimate the difference he made to be very high relative to other individuals working on the issue (on either side).
On what basis the polling was close before the referendum, and the result of the referendum was close. I am not seeing evidence that he made something happen that would not have happened. Are you saying that he must have got results, because he was using the right methods?
What he made happen that would not have happened is voters turning out to vote for Brexit at a higher rate.
When the campaign began, polling was not close. Here is one, from a company which Cummings referred to frequently, that showed a 10 point lead for staying in as of August 2015. The rest of that post is here, wherein he discusses the state of things as the campaign was beginning.
Further, I point you to the expected outcomes, which were heavily in favor of the UK remaining. On page 4 here you see the odds Betfair was putting on the question. This is only over the 10 week span of the official campaign immediately before the referendum.
Using the right methods, their team was able to determine that the actual level of support for leaving was higher than the other campaigns or the media expected. Investigating what the voters thought (via focus groups) helped them identify what people’s concerns were, for and against. Then they tested different ways of communicating with voters, such that their communication resonated with leave voters and minimized antagonism of remain voters. As a result, the turnout for leave voters was higher than expected before the campaign.
At the same time, the other campaigns made assumptions both about the real state of opinion and about methods for communicating with voters. These assumptions were wrong, and they did not test them. As a result, turnout for remain voters was mediocre. I’m not sure if this was expected or not; the remain campaign was pretty much business as usual, so I suspect it was.
On what basis the polling was close before the referendum, and the result of the referendum was close. I am not seeing evidence that he made something happen that would not have happened. Are you saying that he must have got results, because he was using the right methods?
How come we sill don’t know?
What he made happen that would not have happened is voters turning out to vote for Brexit at a higher rate.
When the campaign began, polling was not close. Here is one, from a company which Cummings referred to frequently, that showed a 10 point lead for staying in as of August 2015. The rest of that post is here, wherein he discusses the state of things as the campaign was beginning.
Further, I point you to the expected outcomes, which were heavily in favor of the UK remaining. On page 4 here you see the odds Betfair was putting on the question. This is only over the 10 week span of the official campaign immediately before the referendum.
Using the right methods, their team was able to determine that the actual level of support for leaving was higher than the other campaigns or the media expected. Investigating what the voters thought (via focus groups) helped them identify what people’s concerns were, for and against. Then they tested different ways of communicating with voters, such that their communication resonated with leave voters and minimized antagonism of remain voters. As a result, the turnout for leave voters was higher than expected before the campaign.
At the same time, the other campaigns made assumptions both about the real state of opinion and about methods for communicating with voters. These assumptions were wrong, and they did not test them. As a result, turnout for remain voters was mediocre. I’m not sure if this was expected or not; the remain campaign was pretty much business as usual, so I suspect it was.