I think this isn’t taking powerful AI seriously. I think the quotes below are quite unreasonable, and only ~half of the research agenda is plausibly important given that there will be superintelligence. So I’m pessimistic about this agenda/project relative to, say, the Forethought agenda.
AGI could lead to massive labor displacement, as studies estimate that between 30% − 47% of jobs could be directly replaceable by AI systems. . . .
AGI could lead to stagnating or falling wages for the majority of workers if AI technology replaces people faster than it creates new jobs.
We could see an increase of downward social mobility for workers, as traditionally “high-skilled” service jobs become cheaply performed by AI, but manual labor remains difficult to automate due to the marginal costs of deploying robotics. These economic pressures could reduce the bargaining power of workers, potentially forcing more people towards gig economy roles or less desirable (e.g. physically demanding) jobs.
If AGI systems are developed, evidence across the board points towards the conclusion that the majority of workers could likely lose out from this coming economic transformation. A core bargain of our society – if you work hard, you can get ahead – may become tenuous if opportunities for advancement and economic security dry up.
Update: based on nonpublic discussion I think maybe Deric is focused on the scenario the world is a zillion times wealthier and humanity is in control but many humans have a standard of living that is bad by 2025 standards. I’m not worried about this because it would take a tiny fraction of resources to fix that. (Like, if it only cost 0.0001% of global resources to end poverty forever, someone would do it.)
I think this isn’t taking powerful AI seriously. I think the quotes below are quite unreasonable, and only ~half of the research agenda is plausibly important given that there will be superintelligence. So I’m pessimistic about this agenda/project relative to, say, the Forethought agenda.
Update: based on nonpublic discussion I think maybe Deric is focused on the scenario the world is a zillion times wealthier and humanity is in control but many humans have a standard of living that is bad by 2025 standards. I’m not worried about this because it would take a tiny fraction of resources to fix that. (Like, if it only cost 0.0001% of global resources to end poverty forever, someone would do it.)