Did you miss the second part where I point out that an unmitigated COVID pandemic played out in my brother’s town to almost no consequence? “Everyone got COVID and survived” was not a hypothetical scenario.
your local retirement home abruptly lose half of the residents
Even in the 80+ category, the fatality rate is only 15%.
I didn’t miss the second part, I just reported another scenario which also was not hypothetical.
How many people live in your brother’s town? If the whole community is 500 people (and does not include a retirement home), then I’ve no problem believing that literally everyone got COVID and survived. But the Italian data from 2020 points to a very different direction.
For example, in this article, they report the total number of deaths per town (every death, not just covid-related) and compare 2020 to 2019:
Town of Alzano Lombardo (~13.000 people): 123 deaths in 2019, 239 deaths in 2020.
Town of Nembro (~11.000 people): 121 deaths in 2019, 263 deaths in 2020.
Town of Albino (~18.000 people): 182 deaths in 2019, 292 deaths in 2020.
Approximately +100% deaths in one year is just not something I can ignore.
Regarding fatality ratio in retirement homes, I was basically citing the worst case lingering in my memory (this, also from Nembro, with 39% deaths).
Did you miss the second part where I point out that an unmitigated COVID pandemic played out in my brother’s town to almost no consequence? “Everyone got COVID and survived” was not a hypothetical scenario.
Even in the 80+ category, the fatality rate is only 15%.
I didn’t miss the second part, I just reported another scenario which also was not hypothetical.
How many people live in your brother’s town? If the whole community is 500 people (and does not include a retirement home), then I’ve no problem believing that literally everyone got COVID and survived. But the Italian data from 2020 points to a very different direction.
For example, in this article, they report the total number of deaths per town (every death, not just covid-related) and compare 2020 to 2019:
Town of Alzano Lombardo (~13.000 people): 123 deaths in 2019, 239 deaths in 2020.
Town of Nembro (~11.000 people): 121 deaths in 2019, 263 deaths in 2020.
Town of Albino (~18.000 people): 182 deaths in 2019, 292 deaths in 2020.
Approximately +100% deaths in one year is just not something I can ignore.
Regarding fatality ratio in retirement homes, I was basically citing the worst case lingering in my memory (this, also from Nembro, with 39% deaths).