This post was certainly fun to write, and apparently fun to read as well, but I’m not very satisfied with it in retrospect:
I dunked a bit on people who didn’t deserve that tone; see the comments from Conflux and Nathan Young.
If I were writing it now, I’d also highlight that this form of cheap manipulation via self-fulfilling prophecy is a potentially fatal flaw with futarchy and even with fire-the-CEO markets.
It’s also notable as a real-life example of a spurious counterfactual being used to manipulate a decision! I of all people really should have noticed and mentioned that one.
This post was certainly fun to write, and apparently fun to read as well, but I’m not very satisfied with it in retrospect:
I dunked a bit on people who didn’t deserve that tone; see the comments from Conflux and Nathan Young.
If I were writing it now, I’d also highlight that this form of cheap manipulation via self-fulfilling prophecy is a potentially fatal flaw with futarchy and even with fire-the-CEO markets.
It’s also notable as a real-life example of a spurious counterfactual being used to manipulate a decision! I of all people really should have noticed and mentioned that one.