Exactly. And it’s also a question of magnitude. So we can effectively say that the “real” start is now, despite some precedents.
On no fly-zones, true, it would be out of question for NATO. Only Ukraine proposed it, desperate as they are. However, what matters is not the proposal, but Putin’s nuclear threat, and the ease with which he keeps making them.
I confess I didn’t know about Nixon’s madman theory and Operation Giant Lance, but firstly we can still say that we hadn’t had this type of behavior for half a century, second and more importantly, Nixon’s game with that specific operation was way less dangerous, since according to Wikipedia:
“The operation was kept top secret from both the general public and higher authorities within the Strategic Air Command, intended to only be noticed by Russian intelligence.[4][5] The operation lasted one month before being called off.[4][5]”
So, it was kept top secret and only lasted a month. Whereas with Putin he’s openly threatening the whole world and his endeavors have lasted way longer—and more importantly, we don’t know HOW LONG they’re gonna last, i.e. if he’ll actually end up invading a NATO country. Totally different orders of magnitude.
So, yes, I agree he’s definitely playing madman theory. The problem is (obsviously) - it’s a dangerous game. It necessarily implies risking nuclear war to achieve your objectives, even if you’re indeed bluffing. The opponent can call your bluff, and then nuclear war starts. I.e., Putin invades a NATO country like one of the Baltics, thinking “ah, those Westerners are too pussy to care about these poor economies here, they won’t wanna go to war to defend it, so I can just take it”. But then NATO maybe goes like “well, we don’t care much about the Baltics indeed, but if we don’t stop him now he’s never gonna stop” so WW3 starts.
That’s why in my opinion your argument doesn’t really contradict mine.
On your last point on nuclear risk, maybe it is true that current risk assessment is more realistic now, but that doesn’t change the fact that it can still have significantly increased with the Ukrainian war. I mean, in my view the reason is pretty simple, it’s that you can’t compare Putin’s last invasions, say Georgia and Crimea, with Ukraine. The West could afford to tolerate those. With Ukraine, totally different: 1) it’s gonna be a lot more bloody (Georgia and Crimea barely resisted), causing much more of a humanitarian catastrophe and global instability, 2) it’s a buffer state, with a great size and population, with much more strategic importance and affinity to Europe. So it’s definitely a turning point, to deny this is over indulging in skepticism in my view.
“Retired general Rick Hillier, former commander of the Canadian military, has described a no-fly zone as a necessary response to Russian aggression.”
Other people who ought to know better have also advocated for a no-fly zone. And the general tone of much commentary has the logic of going from “the invasion is a horrible crime of aggression” to “we must do whatever is necessary to stop it”, without stopping to consider that in this world it is not always possible to achieve anything close to the maximally desirable outcome.
“But now the West has clearly realized it”
Exactly. And it’s also a question of magnitude. So we can effectively say that the “real” start is now, despite some precedents.
On no fly-zones, true, it would be out of question for NATO. Only Ukraine proposed it, desperate as they are. However, what matters is not the proposal, but Putin’s nuclear threat, and the ease with which he keeps making them.
I confess I didn’t know about Nixon’s madman theory and Operation Giant Lance, but firstly we can still say that we hadn’t had this type of behavior for half a century, second and more importantly, Nixon’s game with that specific operation was way less dangerous, since according to Wikipedia:
“The operation was kept top secret from both the general public and higher authorities within the Strategic Air Command, intended to only be noticed by Russian intelligence.[4][5] The operation lasted one month before being called off.[4][5]”
So, it was kept top secret and only lasted a month. Whereas with Putin he’s openly threatening the whole world and his endeavors have lasted way longer—and more importantly, we don’t know HOW LONG they’re gonna last, i.e. if he’ll actually end up invading a NATO country. Totally different orders of magnitude.
So, yes, I agree he’s definitely playing madman theory. The problem is (obsviously) - it’s a dangerous game. It necessarily implies risking nuclear war to achieve your objectives, even if you’re indeed bluffing. The opponent can call your bluff, and then nuclear war starts. I.e., Putin invades a NATO country like one of the Baltics, thinking “ah, those Westerners are too pussy to care about these poor economies here, they won’t wanna go to war to defend it, so I can just take it”. But then NATO maybe goes like “well, we don’t care much about the Baltics indeed, but if we don’t stop him now he’s never gonna stop” so WW3 starts.
That’s why in my opinion your argument doesn’t really contradict mine.
On your last point on nuclear risk, maybe it is true that current risk assessment is more realistic now, but that doesn’t change the fact that it can still have significantly increased with the Ukrainian war. I mean, in my view the reason is pretty simple, it’s that you can’t compare Putin’s last invasions, say Georgia and Crimea, with Ukraine. The West could afford to tolerate those. With Ukraine, totally different: 1) it’s gonna be a lot more bloody (Georgia and Crimea barely resisted), causing much more of a humanitarian catastrophe and global instability, 2) it’s a buffer state, with a great size and population, with much more strategic importance and affinity to Europe. So it’s definitely a turning point, to deny this is over indulging in skepticism in my view.
You say: “On no fly-zones, true, it would be out of question for NATO. Only Ukraine proposed it, desperate as they are.”
Unfortunately, not true. From https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/poroshenko-no-fly-zone-1.6370760
“Retired general Rick Hillier, former commander of the Canadian military, has described a no-fly zone as a necessary response to Russian aggression.”
Other people who ought to know better have also advocated for a no-fly zone. And the general tone of much commentary has the logic of going from “the invasion is a horrible crime of aggression” to “we must do whatever is necessary to stop it”, without stopping to consider that in this world it is not always possible to achieve anything close to the maximally desirable outcome.