A bunch of superforecasters were asked what their probability of an AI killing everyone was. They listed out the main ways in which an AI could kill everyone (pandemic, nuclear war, chemical weapons) and decided none of those would be particularly likely to work, for everyone.
As someone who participated in that XPT tournament, that doesn’t match what I encountered. Most superforecasters didn’t list those methods when they focused on AI killing people. Instead, they tried to imagine how AI could differ enough from normal technology that it could attempt to start a nuclear war, and mostly came up with zero ways in which AI could be powerful enough that they should analyze specific ways in which it might kill people.
I think Proof by Failure of Imagination describes that process better than does EFA.
As someone who participated in that XPT tournament, that doesn’t match what I encountered. Most superforecasters didn’t list those methods when they focused on AI killing people. Instead, they tried to imagine how AI could differ enough from normal technology that it could attempt to start a nuclear war, and mostly came up with zero ways in which AI could be powerful enough that they should analyze specific ways in which it might kill people.
I think Proof by Failure of Imagination describes that process better than does EFA.