On the topic of growth rate of computing power, it’s worth noting that we expect the model which experts have to be somewhat more complex that what we represented as “Moore’s law through year ”—but as with the simplification regarding CPU/GPU/ASIC compute, I’m unsure how much this is really a crux for anyone about the timing for AGI.
I would be very interested to hear from anyone who said, for example, “I would expect AGI by 2035 if Moore’s law continues, but I expect it to end before 2030, and it will therefore likely take until 2050 to reach HLMI/AGI.”
I think very few people would explicitly articulate a view like that, but I also think there are people who hold a view along the lines of, “Moore will continue strong for a number of years, and then after that compute/$ will grow at <20% as fast” – in which case, if we’re bottlenecked on hardware, whether Moore ends several years earlier vs later could have a large effect on timelines.
On the topic of growth rate of computing power, it’s worth noting that we expect the model which experts have to be somewhat more complex that what we represented as “Moore’s law through year ”—but as with the simplification regarding CPU/GPU/ASIC compute, I’m unsure how much this is really a crux for anyone about the timing for AGI.
I would be very interested to hear from anyone who said, for example, “I would expect AGI by 2035 if Moore’s law continues, but I expect it to end before 2030, and it will therefore likely take until 2050 to reach HLMI/AGI.”
I think very few people would explicitly articulate a view like that, but I also think there are people who hold a view along the lines of, “Moore will continue strong for a number of years, and then after that compute/$ will grow at <20% as fast” – in which case, if we’re bottlenecked on hardware, whether Moore ends several years earlier vs later could have a large effect on timelines.