Yeah. I got all panicky when I encountered the question (“Argh! Newton! How can I have nothing memorized about someone as important as Newton!”). By somewhat similar reasoning I got an answer and assigned about 1⁄3 probability to my being within 15 years. I ended up within 10 years of the correct answer. By HonoreDB’s rule that would be neither over- nor underconfident. But on discovering the answer I couldn’t help thinking, “rats—I should have been more confident”. I get a sense that thinking about scoring rules too much as a game can also lead to some biases.
Yeah. I got all panicky when I encountered the question (“Argh! Newton! How can I have nothing memorized about someone as important as Newton!”). By somewhat similar reasoning I got an answer and assigned about 1⁄3 probability to my being within 15 years. I ended up within 10 years of the correct answer. By HonoreDB’s rule that would be neither over- nor underconfident. But on discovering the answer I couldn’t help thinking, “rats—I should have been more confident”. I get a sense that thinking about scoring rules too much as a game can also lead to some biases.