Yup; the only Principia Mathematica I’d ever heard of was the one by Russel and Whitehead. I leveraged this shocking lack of knowledge into a guess that Newton lived after Galileo and before Gauss, and put down 10% on 1750; which by the rule of thumb HonoreDB came up with puts me right on the edge of overconfidence.
Yeah. I got all panicky when I encountered the question (“Argh! Newton! How can I have nothing memorized about someone as important as Newton!”). By somewhat similar reasoning I got an answer and assigned about 1⁄3 probability to my being within 15 years. I ended up within 10 years of the correct answer. By HonoreDB’s rule that would be neither over- nor underconfident. But on discovering the answer I couldn’t help thinking, “rats—I should have been more confident”. I get a sense that thinking about scoring rules too much as a game can also lead to some biases.
Yup; the only Principia Mathematica I’d ever heard of was the one by Russel and Whitehead. I leveraged this shocking lack of knowledge into a guess that Newton lived after Galileo and before Gauss, and put down 10% on 1750; which by the rule of thumb HonoreDB came up with puts me right on the edge of overconfidence.
Yeah. I got all panicky when I encountered the question (“Argh! Newton! How can I have nothing memorized about someone as important as Newton!”). By somewhat similar reasoning I got an answer and assigned about 1⁄3 probability to my being within 15 years. I ended up within 10 years of the correct answer. By HonoreDB’s rule that would be neither over- nor underconfident. But on discovering the answer I couldn’t help thinking, “rats—I should have been more confident”. I get a sense that thinking about scoring rules too much as a game can also lead to some biases.