I suspect it’ll be a few percent over a few years. Basically, one of the contributors to economic growth, but not a step-change.
My reasoning is that the VAST majority of the value in office work is the funny mix of judgement and trust/provenance that comes with human workers. Knowing WHICH individual is standing behind a given piece of work is important in valuing the work. These tools are making many people faster at their jobs, and in a lot of cases more precise in their work, but not fully replacing people.
Also, the biggest improvements will be in the less-valuable outputs, and the work will shift from generating the outputs to curating the outputs. This will limit the overall impact for quite some time.
I think I disagree with your take, but with high uncertainty. The counterfactual world I’m describing will only exist in parallel with the real world where we get increased spread lf the technology + improvements in it.
I agree with your assessment of where the value comes from, but I think a lot it time is spent by office workers on the stuff that could be automated. Since time is fungible, workers can use the saved time on the stuff you say drives value.
I suspect it’ll be a few percent over a few years. Basically, one of the contributors to economic growth, but not a step-change.
My reasoning is that the VAST majority of the value in office work is the funny mix of judgement and trust/provenance that comes with human workers. Knowing WHICH individual is standing behind a given piece of work is important in valuing the work. These tools are making many people faster at their jobs, and in a lot of cases more precise in their work, but not fully replacing people.
Also, the biggest improvements will be in the less-valuable outputs, and the work will shift from generating the outputs to curating the outputs. This will limit the overall impact for quite some time.
Thank you for your response!
I think I disagree with your take, but with high uncertainty. The counterfactual world I’m describing will only exist in parallel with the real world where we get increased spread lf the technology + improvements in it.
I agree with your assessment of where the value comes from, but I think a lot it time is spent by office workers on the stuff that could be automated. Since time is fungible, workers can use the saved time on the stuff you say drives value.