I’ve started looking at the data and have a model, but the implementation of the model isn’t finished (doubt I’ll do it anytime soon). You can find my thoughts in this Colab with some nice looking figures ;).
Main findings are:
Days 0, 1 and 2, others bid entirely deterministically.
Days >= 3, bidders bid with what seem to be the same distribution.
Revenue for Winter Wolf follow about the same distribution but with linearly decreasing mean.
Revenue for Yeti seem to have linearly decreasing mean and linearly increasing standard deviation.
Revenue for Snow Serpent don’t seem to change with time.
For the bidder model, the Yeti day=3 data is consistent with the Days 0,1,2 line and not with the days >=4 distribution, and in general, whichever of the new-carcass line or old-carcass distribution would be higher is what we see.
So, my model would be that there are two other bidders, one who makes deterministic linear bids and one who bids in a uniform distribution (see my reply to my top-level comment); both bid on everything (well, I guess as long as the bid is >0), but we don’t see the lower bid.
I’ve started looking at the data and have a model, but the implementation of the model isn’t finished (doubt I’ll do it anytime soon). You can find my thoughts in this Colab with some nice looking figures ;).
Main findings are:
Days 0, 1 and 2, others bid entirely deterministically.
Days >= 3, bidders bid with what seem to be the same distribution.
Revenue for Winter Wolf follow about the same distribution but with linearly decreasing mean.
Revenue for Yeti seem to have linearly decreasing mean and linearly increasing standard deviation.
Revenue for Snow Serpent don’t seem to change with time.
Nice graphs in the colab.
For the bidder model, the Yeti day=3 data is consistent with the Days 0,1,2 line and not with the days >=4 distribution, and in general, whichever of the new-carcass line or old-carcass distribution would be higher is what we see.
So, my model would be that there are two other bidders, one who makes deterministic linear bids and one who bids in a uniform distribution (see my reply to my top-level comment); both bid on everything (well, I guess as long as the bid is >0), but we don’t see the lower bid.
Yes, in retrospect I agree with you. That is a more reasonable model than I got from squinting at the plots.