tailcalled comments on How many of these jobs will have a 15% or more drop in employment plausibly attributable to AI by 2031?

tailcalled 13 Feb 2023 19:56 UTC
2 points
0
What does a bet of “yes” or “no” actually mean?
Yes = the fraction will be higher than the current %, no = the fraction will be lower than the current %.
Also, should you weight these jobs in some way—Software Developer, for instance is currently 1.425M, projected to go to 1.796M, where Chief Executive is less than ¹⁄₄ that size, and expected to decline.
It is possible to weight things, but it is also possible to not weight things. I chose to not weight things.
Also, do you need some process for handling changes in the overall list (say, the list of “software and web engineers and testers” changes, so “software developer” has a different meaning or is removed entirely)?
Hmm added this:
An exception is made if the list of job types changes, e.g. jobs are split, renamed, or deleted. If the job types change due to AI fundamentally changing the nature of the job, then I will likely count that job as having a drop in employment, unless doing so would be silly (e.g. the nature of the job hasn’t changed very much, more people are working in the job than before). If the job types change for other reasons, I will try to find a comparable job type in the new list to make comparable resolutions. If all else fails, I will likely remove the job from the list as above.