Hanson’s position was that something like a singularity will occur due to smarter than human Cognition, but he differs from eliezer by claiming that it will be a distributed intelligence analogous to the economy, trillions of smart human uploads and narrow AIs exchanging skills and subroutines.
He still ultimately supports the idea of a fast transition, based on historical transitions. I think robin would say that something midway between 2 weeks and 20 years is reasonable. Ultimately, if you think hanson has a stronger case, you’re still talking about a fast transition to superintelligence that we need to think about very carefully.
In the CES model (which this author prefers) if the next number of doubles of DT were the same as one of the last three DT doubles, the next doubling time would be either would be 1.3, 2.1, or 2.3 weeks. This suggests a remarkably precise estimate of an amazingly fast growth rate.
Let us now consider the simplest endogenous growth model … lowering ˜α just a little, from .25 to .241, reduces the economic doubling time from 16 years to 13 months … Reducing ˜α further to .24 eliminates diminishing returns and steady growth solutions entirely.
Hanson’s position was that something like a singularity will occur due to smarter than human Cognition, but he differs from eliezer by claiming that it will be a distributed intelligence analogous to the economy, trillions of smart human uploads and narrow AIs exchanging skills and subroutines.
He still ultimately supports the idea of a fast transition, based on historical transitions. I think robin would say that something midway between 2 weeks and 20 years is reasonable. Ultimately, if you think hanson has a stronger case, you’re still talking about a fast transition to superintelligence that we need to think about very carefully.
Indeed:
See also Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence: