Even for those not directly employed by AI labs, there are similar dynamics in the broader AI safety community. Careers, research funding, and professional networks are increasingly built around certain ways of thinking about AI risk. Gradual disempowerment doesn’t fit neatly into these frameworks. It suggests we need different kinds of expertise and different approaches than what many have invested years developing. Academic incentives also currently do not point here—there are likely less than ten economists taking this seriously, trans-disciplinary nature of the problem makes it hard sell as a grant proposal.
I agree this is unfortunate, but this also seems irrelevant? Academic economics (as well as sociology, political science, anthropology, etc.) are approximately completely irrelevant to shaping major governments’ AI policies. “Societal preparedness” and “governance” teams at major AI labs and BigTech giants seem to have approximately no influence on the concrete decisions and strategies of their employers.
The last economist who influenced the economic and policy trajectory significantly was Milton Friedman perhaps?
If not research, what can affect the economic and policy trajectory at all in a deliberate way (disqualifying the unsteerable memetic and cultural drift forces), apart from powerful leaders themselves (Xi, Trump, Putin, Musk, etc.)? Perhaps the way we explore the “technology tree” (see https://michaelnotebook.com/optimism/index.html)? Such as the internet, social media, blockchain, form factors of AI models, etc. I don’t hold too much hope here, but this looks to me like the only plausible lever.
I agree this is unfortunate, but this also seems irrelevant? Academic economics (as well as sociology, political science, anthropology, etc.) are approximately completely irrelevant to shaping major governments’ AI policies. “Societal preparedness” and “governance” teams at major AI labs and BigTech giants seem to have approximately no influence on the concrete decisions and strategies of their employers.
The last economist who influenced the economic and policy trajectory significantly was Milton Friedman perhaps?
If not research, what can affect the economic and policy trajectory at all in a deliberate way (disqualifying the unsteerable memetic and cultural drift forces), apart from powerful leaders themselves (Xi, Trump, Putin, Musk, etc.)? Perhaps the way we explore the “technology tree” (see https://michaelnotebook.com/optimism/index.html)? Such as the internet, social media, blockchain, form factors of AI models, etc. I don’t hold too much hope here, but this looks to me like the only plausible lever.