Wait, you want me to give you 25:1 odds in the sense of, you give me $1 now and then in 2030 if no singularity I give you $25? That’s crazy, why would I ever accept that? I’d only accept that if I was, like, 96% confident in singularity by 2030!
Did you read the comments in the linked example? Multiple LW users accepted bets at 50:1 odds on a 5 year time horizon, an offer of 25:1 odds over ~6.5 years is far less ‘crazy’ by any metric.
Or is there something you don’t understand about the concept of odds? It seems like there’s some gap here causing you a lot of confusion.
Anyways if your not at least 96% confident then of course don’t take the bet.
It’s a pretty crazy offer. It would require me to be supremely confident in singularity by 2030, way more confident than my words indicated, PLUS it is dominated by me just taking out a loan. By a huge margin. (remember money is much less valuable to me in worlds where I lose) Previously I’ve made bets with people about singularity by 2030 and we used resolution criteria along the lines of what I proposed, so I initially thought that’s what you had in mind.
There’s just seems to be something a bit odd about the way you understand probability. A 96% chance of something happening, or not happening, is pretty much a normal everyday situation.
e.g. For those living in an older condo or apartment with 3 or more elevators, the chances of all of their elevators working on any given day is in that range.
For those who own an old car, the chances of nothing malfunctioning on a road trip is in that range.
For those that have bought many LED lightbulbs in batches, the chances for none of them to prematurely fail after the first few months is in that range, as many will attest.
Yes, I have more than 96% credence in lots of things. But it’s crazy to expect me to have it in singularity by 2030, even after I said that singularity would probably happen by 2030.
It’s a pretty crazy offer. It would require me to be supremely confident in singularity by 2030,...
I read ‘supremely confident’ as implying an extraordinary, exceptional, level of confidence, hence my previous comment about an odd understanding of probability. If you didn’t mean to imply it, then that’s fine.
Anyways, you are free to reject or ignore any offered bets without needing to write any justification, that’s a well established norm on LW.
Did you read the comments in the linked example? Multiple LW users accepted bets at 50:1 odds on a 5 year time horizon, an offer of 25:1 odds over ~6.5 years is far less ‘crazy’ by any metric.
Or is there something you don’t understand about the concept of odds? It seems like there’s some gap here causing you a lot of confusion.
Anyways if your not at least 96% confident then of course don’t take the bet.
Yes I did.
Okay… then why were you confused as to the ‘craziness’ of the offer?
My offer is clearly more favourable to you then the already established precedent linked.
It’s a pretty crazy offer. It would require me to be supremely confident in singularity by 2030, way more confident than my words indicated, PLUS it is dominated by me just taking out a loan. By a huge margin. (remember money is much less valuable to me in worlds where I lose) Previously I’ve made bets with people about singularity by 2030 and we used resolution criteria along the lines of what I proposed, so I initially thought that’s what you had in mind.
There’s just seems to be something a bit odd about the way you understand probability. A 96% chance of something happening, or not happening, is pretty much a normal everyday situation.
e.g. For those living in an older condo or apartment with 3 or more elevators, the chances of all of their elevators working on any given day is in that range.
For those who own an old car, the chances of nothing malfunctioning on a road trip is in that range.
For those that have bought many LED lightbulbs in batches, the chances for none of them to prematurely fail after the first few months is in that range, as many will attest.
etc...
Yes, I have more than 96% credence in lots of things. But it’s crazy to expect me to have it in singularity by 2030, even after I said that singularity would probably happen by 2030.
I read ‘supremely confident’ as implying an extraordinary, exceptional, level of confidence, hence my previous comment about an odd understanding of probability. If you didn’t mean to imply it, then that’s fine.
Anyways, you are free to reject or ignore any offered bets without needing to write any justification, that’s a well established norm on LW.