there’s a lot of fully-unknown possibilities. For me, I generalize most “today’s fundamentals don’t apply” scenarios into “my current actions won’t have predictable/optimizable impact beyond the discontinuity”, so I don’t think about specifics or optimization within them—I do think a bit about how to make them less likely or more tolerable, but I can’t really quantify.
Which leaves the cases where the fundamentals DO apply, and is ONLY short- and medium-term optimizations. Nothing I plan for in 100 years is going to happen, so I want to take care of myself and my family in coming decades in cases where things don’t collapse or go too weird. current income > expenses, and reasonable investment strategy (10- and 30-year target date funds, unless you know better, which you don’t) cover the most probability-weight for the next few decades, contingent on any current systems continuing that long.
Your suggestion of social capital (not sure political capital is all that durable, but maybe?) is a very good one as well—having friends, especially friends in different situations (another country, perhaps) is extremely good. First, it’s fun and rewarding immediately. Second, it’s a source of illegible support if things go crazy, but not extinction-crazy.
there’s a lot of fully-unknown possibilities. For me, I generalize most “today’s fundamentals don’t apply” scenarios into “my current actions won’t have predictable/optimizable impact beyond the discontinuity”, so I don’t think about specifics or optimization within them—I do think a bit about how to make them less likely or more tolerable, but I can’t really quantify.
Which leaves the cases where the fundamentals DO apply, and is ONLY short- and medium-term optimizations. Nothing I plan for in 100 years is going to happen, so I want to take care of myself and my family in coming decades in cases where things don’t collapse or go too weird. current income > expenses, and reasonable investment strategy (10- and 30-year target date funds, unless you know better, which you don’t) cover the most probability-weight for the next few decades, contingent on any current systems continuing that long.
Your suggestion of social capital (not sure political capital is all that durable, but maybe?) is a very good one as well—having friends, especially friends in different situations (another country, perhaps) is extremely good. First, it’s fun and rewarding immediately. Second, it’s a source of illegible support if things go crazy, but not extinction-crazy.