That is, you think alignment is so difficult that keeping humanity alive for 3 years is more valuable than the possibility of us solving alignment during the pause? Or that the AIs will sabotage the project in a way undetectable by management even if management is very paranoid about being sabotaged by any model that has shown prerequisite capabilities for it?
Conditional on the world deciding on a fixed length pause instead of a pause till the model is aligned, absolutely yes. Unconditionally, yes but with less confidence.
That is, you think alignment is so difficult that keeping humanity alive for 3 years is more valuable than the possibility of us solving alignment during the pause? Or that the AIs will sabotage the project in a way undetectable by management even if management is very paranoid about being sabotaged by any model that has shown prerequisite capabilities for it?
Conditional on the world deciding on a fixed length pause instead of a pause till the model is aligned, absolutely yes. Unconditionally, yes but with less confidence.