Cotra’s model contained estimates which are as obvious BS as anchoring the size of a TRANSFORMATIVE neural net to the GENOME or the training compute to the entire evolution of life on Earth. I don’t think that I understand how Cotra even came up with these two ideas. What I do understand is how Cotra came up with the estimates like 1e31 FLOP or the lifetime anchor of 1e24 FLOP which are likely the only plausible ones in the report. As far as I understand, THESE assumptions would imply that creating the TAI is easy.
Cotra’s model contained estimates which are as obvious BS as anchoring the size of a TRANSFORMATIVE neural net to the GENOME or the training compute to the entire evolution of life on Earth. I don’t think that I understand how Cotra even came up with these two ideas. What I do understand is how Cotra came up with the estimates like 1e31 FLOP or the lifetime anchor of 1e24 FLOP which are likely the only plausible ones in the report. As far as I understand, THESE assumptions would imply that creating the TAI is easy.