What Kokotajlo likely means by claiming that “Ajeya’s timelines report is the best thing that’s ever been written about AI timelines imo” is that Cotra’s model was a good model where the values of parameters are total BS. Her report consists of four parts. In my opinion, two clearest example of BS are the genome anchor which had the transformative model “have about as many parameters as there are bytes in the human genome (~7.5e8 bytes)” and the evolution anchor which claimed “that training computation requirements will resemble the amount of computation performed in all animal brains over the course of evolution from the earliest animals with neurons to modern humans”. This is outright absurd since each animal has its own brain which is trained independently of others, and yet the human brain’s architecture and training are outright enough to have a chance to create the AI who does what a human genius can do.
What Kokotajlo likely means by claiming that “Ajeya’s timelines report is the best thing that’s ever been written about AI timelines imo” is that Cotra’s model was a good model where the values of parameters are total BS. Her report consists of four parts. In my opinion, two clearest example of BS are the genome anchor which had the transformative model “have about as many parameters as there are bytes in the human genome (~7.5e8 bytes)” and the evolution anchor which claimed “that training computation requirements will resemble the amount of computation performed in all animal brains over the course of evolution from the earliest animals with neurons to modern humans”. This is outright absurd since each animal has its own brain which is trained independently of others, and yet the human brain’s architecture and training are outright enough to have a chance to create the AI who does what a human genius can do.