At the time, iirc, I went through Ajeya’s spreadsheet and thought about each parameter and twiddled them to be more correct-according-to-me, and got something like median 2030 at the end.
At the time, iirc, I went through Ajeya’s spreadsheet and thought about each parameter and twiddled them to be more correct-according-to-me, and got something like median 2030 at the end.