Putting together an article, for now here’s 22 predictions:
Tether is worth less than 99c by end of year: 2%
Biden or Harris mentions GPT-4: 2%
At least one school district or university is reported to tell students not to use language models (not just one teacher): 15%
A deepfake goes viral (>1 million views) with very few people, at first, realizing that it’s fake: 15%
Russia is widely considered to have captured the capital of Ukraine, Kyiv: 10%
S&P 500 goes up: 80%
Annual CPI inflation released Jan 2023 (for Dec 2022) over 3.5%: 40%
The 7 day rolling average deaths from Covid-19 falls below 100 in the United States for at least one day: 85%
Omicron booster is taken by at least 25% of Americans over 18: 20%
Dems lose the Senate: 75%
Dems lose the house: 85%
Biden is president: 95%
New named prominent variant infects over 10M: 25%
Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023: 25%
Bill signed by Joe Biden that mentions cryptocurrency/blockchain/etc: 65%
Bored Ape Yacht Club floor price is lower than today in dollars ($253k): 80%
Will GME be over $100: 50%
Trump indictment: 25%
Matt Gaetz indictment: 5%
Matt Gaetz in office: 95%
Federal booster mandate: 33%
Masks required on airplanes by Federal law: 65%
Putting together an article, for now here’s 22 predictions:
Tether is worth less than 99c by end of year: 2%
Biden or Harris mentions GPT-4: 2%
At least one school district or university is reported to tell students not to use language models (not just one teacher): 15%
A deepfake goes viral (>1 million views) with very few people, at first, realizing that it’s fake: 15%
Russia is widely considered to have captured the capital of Ukraine, Kyiv: 10%
S&P 500 goes up: 80%
Annual CPI inflation released Jan 2023 (for Dec 2022) over 3.5%: 40%
The 7 day rolling average deaths from Covid-19 falls below 100 in the United States for at least one day: 85%
Omicron booster is taken by at least 25% of Americans over 18: 20%
Dems lose the Senate: 75%
Dems lose the house: 85%
Biden is president: 95%
New named prominent variant infects over 10M: 25%
Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023: 25%
Bill signed by Joe Biden that mentions cryptocurrency/blockchain/etc: 65%
Bored Ape Yacht Club floor price is lower than today in dollars ($253k): 80%
Will GME be over $100: 50%
Trump indictment: 25%
Matt Gaetz indictment: 5%
Matt Gaetz in office: 95%
Federal booster mandate: 33%
Masks required on airplanes by Federal law: 65%