Kokotajlo already claims to have begun working on AI-2032 branch where the timelines are pushed back, or that “we should have some credence on new breakthroughs e.g. neuralese, online learning, whatever. Maybe like 8%/yr? Of a breakthrough that would lead to superhuman coders within a year or two, after being appropriately scaled up and tinkered with.”
I have two issues: one is the possibility that CoT-based AIs fail to reach the AGI, and another with the 8%/yr estimate of the chance of the next breakthrough.
Kokotajlo already claims to have begun working on AI-2032 branch where the timelines are pushed back, or that “we should have some credence on new breakthroughs e.g. neuralese, online learning, whatever. Maybe like 8%/yr? Of a breakthrough that would lead to superhuman coders within a year or two, after being appropriately scaled up and tinkered with.”
I have two issues: one is the possibility that CoT-based AIs fail to reach the AGI, and another with the 8%/yr estimate of the chance of the next breakthrough.