To clarify the last part of your comment, the ratio of the probability of the Great Filter being in front of us to the probability of the Great Filter being behind tool-using intelligent animals should be unchanged by this update, right?
Yes. Every other possible filter would gain equally, unless you think this implies that maybe we should discount other evolutionary steps more as well. But either way, that’s still bad on net because we lose probability mass on steps behind us.
To clarify the last part of your comment, the ratio of the probability of the Great Filter being in front of us to the probability of the Great Filter being behind tool-using intelligent animals should be unchanged by this update, right?
Yes. Every other possible filter would gain equally, unless you think this implies that maybe we should discount other evolutionary steps more as well. But either way, that’s still bad on net because we lose probability mass on steps behind us.