One argument against the bill that I didn’t explore above (because I haven’t actually heard anyone make it) is that the only reason Democrats aren’t gerrymandering more is because gerrymandering seems more helpful to Republicans for demographic reasons. But Democrats try to do other things that are arguably designed to give them more votes. For example, loosening voter ID laws. So maybe each party should carefully respond to the ways the other party tries to sneakily get themselves more votes in very measured ways that properly disincentivize bad behavior engage in a crazy ever-escalating no-holds-barred race to the bottom.
I think it’s good that the Republicans and Democrats have been somewhat specific that their attempts at gerrymandering are only retaliation against other gerrymandering, and not retaliation against things like this
To elaborate on this, a model of voting demographics is that the most engaged voters vote no matter what hoops they need to jump through, so rules and laws that make voting easier increase the share of less engaged voters. This benefits whichever party is comparatively favored by these less engaged voters. Historically this used to be the Democrats, but due to education polarization they’ve become the party of the college-educated nowadays. This is also reflected in things like Trump winning the Presidential popular vote in 2024. (Though as a counterpoint, this Matt Yglesias article from 2022 claims that voter ID laws “do not have a discernible impact on election results” but doesn’t elaborate.)
In addition, voter ID laws are net popular, so Democrats advocating against them hurts them both directly (advocating for an unpopular policy) and indirectly (insofar as it increases the pool of less engaged voters).
One argument against the bill that I didn’t explore above (because I haven’t actually heard anyone make it) is that the only reason Democrats aren’t gerrymandering more is because gerrymandering seems more helpful to Republicans for demographic reasons. But Democrats try to do other things that are arguably designed to give them more votes. For example, loosening voter ID laws. So maybe each party should
carefully respond to the ways the other party tries to sneakily get themselves more votes in very measured ways that properly disincentivize bad behaviorengage in a crazy ever-escalating no-holds-barred race to the bottom.I think it’s good that the Republicans and Democrats have been somewhat specific that their attempts at gerrymandering are only retaliation against other gerrymandering, and not retaliation against things like this
My understanding is that voter ID laws are probably net helpful for Democrats at this point.
To elaborate on this, a model of voting demographics is that the most engaged voters vote no matter what hoops they need to jump through, so rules and laws that make voting easier increase the share of less engaged voters. This benefits whichever party is comparatively favored by these less engaged voters. Historically this used to be the Democrats, but due to education polarization they’ve become the party of the college-educated nowadays. This is also reflected in things like Trump winning the Presidential popular vote in 2024. (Though as a counterpoint, this Matt Yglesias article from 2022 claims that voter ID laws “do not have a discernible impact on election results” but doesn’t elaborate.)
In addition, voter ID laws are net popular, so Democrats advocating against them hurts them both directly (advocating for an unpopular policy) and indirectly (insofar as it increases the pool of less engaged voters).