[Question] How should we adjust microCOVID estimates for omicron, boosters, testing?

As I assess potential New Year’s Eve plans with the intent of spending several days indoors immediately thereafter with my parents (early-to-mid 60s, one has mild-to-moderate asthma but probably healthier than your average 60 year old otherwise [1]), I’ve been struggling to figure out how to use microCOVID.org given Omicron, boosters, and potential rapid testing.

Here are my working assumptions for everything but testing:

https://​​docs.google.com/​​spreadsheets/​​d/​​1yZqJKyzPu4CuNFfSR7Tq_QFgSEKrNll-n6iFB-Ly4jw/​​edit?usp=sharing

For rapid tests, I plan to multiply by a factor of 30% based on Tornus’ post citing a 75% reduction in risk from a BinaxNOW test. I cut it down by 5 percentage points arbitrarily to reflect some uncertainty around how sensitivity varies for omicron. Uncertainty comes from the following:

[1] In practice, I plan to navigate this by doing rapid tests every day I am with my parents, and masking indoors with a KN95 for at least the first day. Still figuring out how risky a gathering I am willing to attend given that (hang out with a few people indoors with rapid tests beforehand? Plus masks?).