On The Effectiveness of Ferriss
Tim Ferriss has been systematically quoted on Less Wrong.
How to make money to donate utilons and show you care is a persistent topic on Less Wrong.
No one here seems to either have tried, or accessed the feasibility of Tim Ferrissing life (for instance accessing by checking for people who tried without the obvious survivor bias displayed in Ferriss`s own website)
A probability 30% of earning $12.000 per month working for 10 hours per week after a build-up time of 4 months working 10 hours a day to get it started (having fun while figuring out how does capitalism work anyway) seems like a fair bet.
My prior for the above paragraph feasibility is about 15%.
Should my posterior be above the 30% threshold?
Data anyone?
Different prior anyone?
Lone bystander bias,everyone?
Ferriss strikes me as one of those highly intelligent, highly capable, and highly energetic people who overestimate their understanding of how they themselves became so successful.
I tried the method Ferriss describes in his book. One of the things he really stresses is testing your idea before you invest. When I did this, I found out that none of my business ideas were viable, although some were close. The total cost to me was tiny, and I learned something valuable: my business ideas weren’t good enough. Everything Ferriss actually said was valid (in my experience) but the problem is in the thousand little judgements you have to make. Most of us probably don’t have TF’s competence, and that really isn’t something you can learn in a short book.
I don`t mean to invade your privacy, but would you like to share your ideas so that people can check whether they feel closer to your idea-kind or to his idea-kinds?
Nothing personal (i do not even know you IRL to my knowledge), but there is also charisma. If your ideas were close to viable, charisma of someone like TF might have made them valuable. This is an addendum, otherwise agreed.
Systematically? Or “there are a few ad hoc mentions here and there”? ;)
Regardless, he certainly does mention a few strategies that I think are worth considering a bit more rigorously. I particularly like the recent 4-Hour Body book.
Obnoxiously so. But whatever your goals, charitable support or otherwise money is one of the easiest forms of power to acquire. We can consider the acquisition of instrumental resources independently of how much we want to show of our self sacrifice. :)
(I don’t quite agree—but the point is not worth arguing about. Scepticism is always called for with respect to surprising claims.)
That sounds about right to me (Ferris or no). Assuming certain existing skills or aptitudes in relation to self-management, execution and persuasion. Perhaps the most difficult part is being the sort of person who can go ahead and throw themselves into the deep end and put that amount of focus into money making.