sure, you can notice extremely large effect sizes through vibes. but the claim is that for even “smaller” effect sizes (like, tens of percentage points, e.g 50->75%), you need pretty big sample sizes. obviously 0->100% doesn’t need a very large sample size.
I agree that chatgpt obviously has lots of name recognition but I do also separately think chatgpt has less name recognition than you might guess. I predict that only 85% of Americans would get a multiple choice question right about what kind of app chatgpt is (choices: artificial intelligence; social media; messaging and calling; online dating). whereas a control question about e.g Google will get like 97% or whatever the lizardman constant dictates
Reasonable, I also don’t expect that I could pick up on a 1.5x increase in name recognition over a year based on vibes—didn’t read closely enough to notice you were talking about a 10% increase, so sorry about the time waste.
sure, you can notice extremely large effect sizes through vibes. but the claim is that for even “smaller” effect sizes (like, tens of percentage points, e.g 50->75%), you need pretty big sample sizes. obviously 0->100% doesn’t need a very large sample size.
I agree that chatgpt obviously has lots of name recognition but I do also separately think chatgpt has less name recognition than you might guess. I predict that only 85% of Americans would get a multiple choice question right about what kind of app chatgpt is (choices: artificial intelligence; social media; messaging and calling; online dating). whereas a control question about e.g Google will get like 97% or whatever the lizardman constant dictates
Reasonable, I also don’t expect that I could pick up on a 1.5x increase in name recognition over a year based on vibes—didn’t read closely enough to notice you were talking about a 10% increase, so sorry about the time waste.