unfortunately this is pretty hard to implement. free speech/democracy is a very strong baseline but still insufficient. the key property we want is a system where true things systematically win over false things (even when the false things appeal to people’s biases), and it is sufficiently reliable at doing so and therefore intellectually legitimate that participants are willing to accept the outcome of the process even when it disagrees with what they started with. perhaps there is some kind of debate protocol that would make this feasible?
prediction markets have two major issues for this use case. one is that prediction markets can only tell you whether people have been calibrated in the past, which is useful signal and filters out pundits but isn’t very highly reliable for out of distribution questions (for example, ai x-risk). the other is that they don’t really help much with the case where all the necessary information is already available but it is unclear what conclusion to draw from the evidence (and where having the right deliberative process to make sure the truth comes out at the end is the cat-belling problem). prediction markets can only “pull information from the future” so to speak.
unfortunately this is pretty hard to implement. free speech/democracy is a very strong baseline but still insufficient. the key property we want is a system where true things systematically win over false things (even when the false things appeal to people’s biases), and it is sufficiently reliable at doing so and therefore intellectually legitimate that participants are willing to accept the outcome of the process even when it disagrees with what they started with. perhaps there is some kind of debate protocol that would make this feasible?
Prediction markets? Generally, track people’s previous success rates about measurable things.
prediction markets have two major issues for this use case. one is that prediction markets can only tell you whether people have been calibrated in the past, which is useful signal and filters out pundits but isn’t very highly reliable for out of distribution questions (for example, ai x-risk). the other is that they don’t really help much with the case where all the necessary information is already available but it is unclear what conclusion to draw from the evidence (and where having the right deliberative process to make sure the truth comes out at the end is the cat-belling problem). prediction markets can only “pull information from the future” so to speak.