prediction markets have two major issues for this use case. one is that prediction markets can only tell you whether people have been calibrated in the past, which is useful signal and filters out pundits but isn’t very highly reliable for out of distribution questions (for example, ai x-risk). the other is that they don’t really help much with the case where all the necessary information is already available but it is unclear what conclusion to draw from the evidence (and where having the right deliberative process to make sure the truth comes out at the end is the cat-belling problem). prediction markets can only “pull information from the future” so to speak.
Prediction markets? Generally, track people’s previous success rates about measurable things.
prediction markets have two major issues for this use case. one is that prediction markets can only tell you whether people have been calibrated in the past, which is useful signal and filters out pundits but isn’t very highly reliable for out of distribution questions (for example, ai x-risk). the other is that they don’t really help much with the case where all the necessary information is already available but it is unclear what conclusion to draw from the evidence (and where having the right deliberative process to make sure the truth comes out at the end is the cat-belling problem). prediction markets can only “pull information from the future” so to speak.