I think there is a subtle difference between DA and Laplace:
Laplace predicts the “minimal probability”: there is at least 4999 / 5000 chance that the Sun will rise tomorrow humanity will not extinct next year . DA predicts necessity: there is 1 in 5000 chance that humanity will extinct next year.
But Laplace doesn’t predict that humanity will inevitably extinct at the age 10 times longer than it has now. DA instead predicts that the chances to survive to such age are 10 per cent.
I think there is a subtle difference between DA and Laplace:
Laplace predicts the “minimal probability”: there is at least 4999 / 5000 chance that the
Sun will rise tomorrowhumanity will not extinct next year . DA predicts necessity: there is 1 in 5000 chance that humanity will extinct next year.So Laplace supports reverse Doomsday argument: that the end can’t be very nigh.
But Laplace doesn’t predict that humanity will inevitably extinct at the age 10 times longer than it has now. DA instead predicts that the chances to survive to such age are 10 per cent.