I somehow missed this excellent post when it was written, and have just now read it. I totally endorse the argument given here. This is indeed the very obvious apparently not obvious to most people (somehow), but clearly correct, deconstruction of SIA, SSA, the Doomsday Argument, and all similar things. Well done!
Glad that you’ve enjoyed the post and thank you for your kind words.
In case you’ve also missed it, I’m currently working on a sequence about general probability theoretic reasoning to provide a clear framework which would not produce this kind of confusions in the first place.
I somehow missed this excellent post when it was written, and have just now read it. I totally endorse the argument given here. This is indeed the
very obviousapparently not obvious to most people (somehow), but clearly correct, deconstruction of SIA, SSA, the Doomsday Argument, and all similar things. Well done!Glad that you’ve enjoyed the post and thank you for your kind words.
In case you’ve also missed it, I’m currently working on a sequence about general probability theoretic reasoning to provide a clear framework which would not produce this kind of confusions in the first place.
I’ll check out the sequence, thanks!