What I want to be notified about is signs (e.g., satellite photos) that Russia or China is evacuating its cities.
Also, any threat by Russia or China to attack the US with nukes if Washington does not take specific action X before date Y.
Russia’s using a nuke in Ukraine wouldn’t increase my P(nuclear attack on the US) enough to cause me to relocate to a rural area, but those 2 other things would.
Do you think prediction markets wouldn’t respond appropriately to those things?
I think this issue could be fixed by lengthening the message of the phone calls (if it ever gets sent out) to also quote all the comments on the sentinel markets from the last ~week before the trigger time. The reason why is that I expect, if there were to ever be legitimate signs of a impending nuclear war, that people would leave plenty of comments on the relevant markets about these signs.