I think I understand this a bit better know, given also Rob’s comment on FB.
On the theoretical level, that’s a very interesting belief to have, because sometimes it doesn’t pay rent in anticipated experience at all. Given that you cannot predict a change in direction, it seems rational to act as if your belief will not change, despite you being very confident it will change.
Your practical example is not a change of belief. It’s rather saying “I now believe I’ll increase funding to MIRI, but my credence is still <70% as the formal decision process usually uncovers many surprises”
I think I understand this a bit better know, given also Rob’s comment on FB.
On the theoretical level, that’s a very interesting belief to have, because sometimes it doesn’t pay rent in anticipated experience at all. Given that you cannot predict a change in direction, it seems rational to act as if your belief will not change, despite you being very confident it will change.
Your practical example is not a change of belief. It’s rather saying “I now believe I’ll increase funding to MIRI, but my credence is still <70% as the formal decision process usually uncovers many surprises”