Right. I will say that the heuristic of trusting “people who have social status within field X” seems to have very obvious flaws and biases, and it’s important to build models to work past those mistakes. Furthermore, in the world around us, most high status people in institutions are messing up most of the time. Bank of Japan is fine example, but also the people running my prestigious high school, my university, researchers in my field, etc. It’s important to learn where they’re inadequate so you can find extra value.
I’m not saying that in general “trust the high status people” isn’t probably okay if you have zero further info, but you definitely need to start building detailed models and get better than that otherwise you’re definitely not going to save the world.
Right. I will say that the heuristic of trusting “people who have social status within field X” seems to have very obvious flaws and biases, and it’s important to build models to work past those mistakes. Furthermore, in the world around us, most high status people in institutions are messing up most of the time. Bank of Japan is fine example, but also the people running my prestigious high school, my university, researchers in my field, etc. It’s important to learn where they’re inadequate so you can find extra value.
I’m not saying that in general “trust the high status people” isn’t probably okay if you have zero further info, but you definitely need to start building detailed models and get better than that otherwise you’re definitely not going to save the world.