How much support is there for promotion of prediction markets? I see three levels:
1. Legalization of real-money markets (they are legal in some places, but their illegality or legal dubiousness in the US—combined with the centrality of the US companies in global finance—makes it hard to run a big one without US permission)
2. Subsidies for real-money markets in policy-relevant issues, as advocated by Robin Hanson
3. Use of prediction markets to determine policy (futarchy), as envisioned by Robin Hanson
How much support is there for promotion of prediction markets? I see three levels:
1. Legalization of real-money markets (they are legal in some places, but their illegality or legal dubiousness in the US—combined with the centrality of the US companies in global finance—makes it hard to run a big one without US permission)
2. Subsidies for real-money markets in policy-relevant issues, as advocated by Robin Hanson
3. Use of prediction markets to determine policy (futarchy), as envisioned by Robin Hanson