If you make any of these hypotheses precise enough to calculate, then I don’t think that they are likely enough to be worth calculating. The point was just to give suggest how big the space of unknown unknowns is. I think you need an outside view to estimate it. You might hope to get that from the virologists, but they are dismissing it as a “founder effect” which is even more specific, rather than accepting the ignorance of an outside view.
I think I got them all from Francois Balloux, though I’m not sure what he was saying and I may have interpolated a lot of detail. I got 2a and maybe 1 from here. 2b is from here, a response to the first thread. Added: actually, I think I got 2a from the “Does it matter” video, which was generally hostile to reason and knowledge epidemiology, but did suggest something like this at the end.
If you make any of these hypotheses precise enough to calculate, then I don’t think that they are likely enough to be worth calculating. The point was just to give suggest how big the space of unknown unknowns is. I think you need an outside view to estimate it. You might hope to get that from the virologists, but they are dismissing it as a “founder effect” which is even more specific, rather than accepting the ignorance of an outside view.
I think I got them all from Francois Balloux, though I’m not sure what he was saying and I may have interpolated a lot of detail. I got 2a and maybe 1 from here. 2b is from here, a response to the first thread. Added: actually, I think I got 2a from the “Does it matter” video, which was generally hostile to
reason and knowledgeepidemiology, but did suggest something like this at the end.