It looks to me like everyone was horrendously underconfident on all the easy questions, and horrendously overconfident on all the hard questions.
I think that this is what correct calibration overall looks like, since you don’t know in advance which questions are easy and which ones are tricky. I would be quite impressed if a group of super-calibrators had correct calibration curves on every question, rather than on average over a set of questions.
I think that this is what correct calibration overall looks like, since you don’t know in advance which questions are easy and which ones are tricky. I would be quite impressed if a group of super-calibrators had correct calibration curves on every question, rather than on average over a set of questions.
Can you explain your point more fully? I don’t think I understand or can identify the antecedents. For instance, what you mean by calibration..
Right, Dunning-Kruger is just regression to the mean.
No, that’s false. It’s possible (and common) for a person to be wildly overconfident on a pretty broad domain of questions.