Also when I changed the “How much easier/harder each coding time horizon doubling gets” parameter by small amounts, the forecasted time from AC to ASI changes significantly (2.7 years at 0.90, over 4 years for 1.00), so it looks like stages 2 and 3 are affected as well.
I’d guess that this is only because compute growth (and human labor growth, but that doesn’t matter as much) at that point is slower during takeoff if takeoff starts later.
Let’s test this, this theory would predict that whatever time horizon growth parameter I changed, would result in the same takeoff if it ends up starting at the same time:
From the starting state, if I raise “How much easier/harder...” to 0.99, AC happens in 1/2040, and ASI happens in 3/2044 (so 4 years 2 months, replicating you)
If I instead raise present doubling time (“How long it...”) to 9.5 months, then AC happens in 12/2039, and ASI happens in 2/2044 (same speed as in (1))
I can’t get AC at that time by only raising AC time horizon requirement, but if I raise it to the max, then raise “How much easier/harder...”to 0.95, I get pretty close: AC at Jul 2038, and ASI at Aug 2042. Barely under 4 year takeoff. If I also raise present doubling time to 6 months, then I get 8/2040 to 11/2044 takeoff, 4 year 3 month takeoff.
Ok, looks like I was right. I’m pretty sure that these do affect takeoff, but only by changing the starting date.
Edit: actually sorry these can also affect takeoff via the coding automation task efficiencies when reaching AC / start of takeoff, because if the effective compute requirement is different then the logistic curve has a lower slope, not just shifted over to the right. My guess is that the compute growth is having a larger impact, but we’d have to do a bit more work to check (either way each time horizon growth parameter would have the same effect if it reuslted in AC happening at the same time, because all the parameters do is set the effective compute requirement for AC).
I’d guess that this is only because compute growth (and human labor growth, but that doesn’t matter as much) at that point is slower during takeoff if takeoff starts later.
Let’s test this, this theory would predict that whatever time horizon growth parameter I changed, would result in the same takeoff if it ends up starting at the same time:
From the starting state, if I raise “How much easier/harder...” to 0.99, AC happens in 1/2040, and ASI happens in 3/2044 (so 4 years 2 months, replicating you)
If I instead raise present doubling time (“How long it...”) to 9.5 months, then AC happens in 12/2039, and ASI happens in 2/2044 (same speed as in (1))
I can’t get AC at that time by only raising AC time horizon requirement, but if I raise it to the max, then raise “How much easier/harder...”to 0.95, I get pretty close: AC at Jul 2038, and ASI at Aug 2042. Barely under 4 year takeoff. If I also raise present doubling time to 6 months, then I get 8/2040 to 11/2044 takeoff, 4 year 3 month takeoff.
Ok, looks like I was right. I’m pretty sure that these do affect takeoff, but only by changing the starting date.Edit: actually sorry these can also affect takeoff via the coding automation task efficiencies when reaching AC / start of takeoff, because if the effective compute requirement is different then the logistic curve has a lower slope, not just shifted over to the right. My guess is that the compute growth is having a larger impact, but we’d have to do a bit more work to check (either way each time horizon growth parameter would have the same effect if it reuslted in AC happening at the same time, because all the parameters do is set the effective compute requirement for AC).