As I’ve argued, anthropics reasoning, absent indistinguishable copies, is nothing special: “I observe X” gives the same update as “I exist and observe X”.
So, what theory best explains the fact we exist and don’t observe aliens? Apart from the various “zoo hypotheses” (there are aliens but they are hiding), the most likely theory is “evolving life is not that hard, but humans evolved unusually early”. The first half makes our existence more likely, the second explains our non-observation of aliens (again, “we don’t observe aliens” is the same as “we exist and don’t observe aliens”, which is the same as “early aliens didn’t kill or conquer humanity, and we don’t observe aliens”).
As I’ve argued, anthropics reasoning, absent indistinguishable copies, is nothing special: “I observe X” gives the same update as “I exist and observe X”.
So, what theory best explains the fact we exist and don’t observe aliens? Apart from the various “zoo hypotheses” (there are aliens but they are hiding), the most likely theory is “evolving life is not that hard, but humans evolved unusually early”. The first half makes our existence more likely, the second explains our non-observation of aliens (again, “we don’t observe aliens” is the same as “we exist and don’t observe aliens”, which is the same as “early aliens didn’t kill or conquer humanity, and we don’t observe aliens”).