These terms are insanely vague and not even indicative of whether or not there is some conspiracy involving the 9/11 attacks.
Right. But it is some indication that there is a strong bias in LW regarding 9/11.
Btw, you don’t need to bet anything, all I need would be the necessary exposure here on LW so that said person(which is not you btw) could not omit an answer, therefore the bluff being exposed.
How does this even begin to hit Jack’s point? Jack hasn’t claimed that there might not be such bias on LW nor has anyone else. For that matter, it wouldn’t surprise me if there’s a small bit of bias against 9/11 Truthers here. I think it is quite clear that there are a lot of biases operating here. And I can supply strong evidence for a major bias on demand. But that in no way says anything useful about what happened on 9/11 unless you think that the biases here are because Eliezer and Robin are somehow involved in covering up the big nasty conspiracy and have deliberately cultivated an anti- 9/11 Truther attitude to assist the conspiracy in its cover up.
Jack gave possible wagers. Another possible example would be something based on public opinion. Something like “By time T, the consensus view will be that the current accepted view of what happened on 9/11 is wrong.” That wording could be made more precise but the basic idea would be clear. One could use it with a specific data point also such as the presence of explosives in WTC7.
Right, thats why I gave a long time horizon and offered him odds. I mean if the conspiracy is that strong maybe we won’t feel like it is worthwhile to bet. But I could give him 50:1 odds or better depending on the details of the wager and still come out ahead. (ETA: We can’t figure it out whether or not a bet is possible until we exchange probabilities)
Right. But it is some indication that there is a strong bias in LW regarding 9/11.
Btw, you don’t need to bet anything, all I need would be the necessary exposure here on LW so that said person(which is not you btw) could not omit an answer, therefore the bluff being exposed.
How does this even begin to hit Jack’s point? Jack hasn’t claimed that there might not be such bias on LW nor has anyone else. For that matter, it wouldn’t surprise me if there’s a small bit of bias against 9/11 Truthers here. I think it is quite clear that there are a lot of biases operating here. And I can supply strong evidence for a major bias on demand. But that in no way says anything useful about what happened on 9/11 unless you think that the biases here are because Eliezer and Robin are somehow involved in covering up the big nasty conspiracy and have deliberately cultivated an anti- 9/11 Truther attitude to assist the conspiracy in its cover up.
I’ll let Blueberry take this bet since he(?) wants it.
Does this mean you’re not interested in a wager regarding 9/11 itself though?
I don’t see any sensible way in formulating or adjudicating such a wager.
Jack gave possible wagers. Another possible example would be something based on public opinion. Something like “By time T, the consensus view will be that the current accepted view of what happened on 9/11 is wrong.” That wording could be made more precise but the basic idea would be clear. One could use it with a specific data point also such as the presence of explosives in WTC7.
Hows that? I gave two possibilities above. There are surely more events that you must think are more likely than I do, given your beliefs.
There may not be any such events that he thinks will happen in the near future if he thinks the conspiracy is powerful or competent enough.
Right, thats why I gave a long time horizon and offered him odds. I mean if the conspiracy is that strong maybe we won’t feel like it is worthwhile to bet. But I could give him 50:1 odds or better depending on the details of the wager and still come out ahead. (ETA: We can’t figure it out whether or not a bet is possible until we exchange probabilities)