Right, thats why I gave a long time horizon and offered him odds. I mean if the conspiracy is that strong maybe we won’t feel like it is worthwhile to bet. But I could give him 50:1 odds or better depending on the details of the wager and still come out ahead. (ETA: We can’t figure it out whether or not a bet is possible until we exchange probabilities)
There may not be any such events that he thinks will happen in the near future if he thinks the conspiracy is powerful or competent enough.
Right, thats why I gave a long time horizon and offered him odds. I mean if the conspiracy is that strong maybe we won’t feel like it is worthwhile to bet. But I could give him 50:1 odds or better depending on the details of the wager and still come out ahead. (ETA: We can’t figure it out whether or not a bet is possible until we exchange probabilities)