Thanks for the post and especially for the peer-reviewed paper! Without disregarding the great non-peer-reviewed work that many others are doing, I do think it is really important to get the most important points peer-reviewed as well, preferably as explicit as possible (e.g. also mentioning human extinction, timelines, lower bound estimates, etc). Thanks as well for spelling out your lower bound probabilities, I think we should have this discussion more often, more structurally, and more widely (also with people outside of the AI xrisk community). I guess I’m also in the same ballpark regarding the options and numbers (perhaps a bit more optimistic).
Quick question:
“3.1.1. Practical laws exist which would, if followed, preclude dangerous AI. 100% (recall this is optimistically-biased, but I do tentatively think this is likely, having drafted such a law).”
Thanks for the post and especially for the peer-reviewed paper! Without disregarding the great non-peer-reviewed work that many others are doing, I do think it is really important to get the most important points peer-reviewed as well, preferably as explicit as possible (e.g. also mentioning human extinction, timelines, lower bound estimates, etc). Thanks as well for spelling out your lower bound probabilities, I think we should have this discussion more often, more structurally, and more widely (also with people outside of the AI xrisk community). I guess I’m also in the same ballpark regarding the options and numbers (perhaps a bit more optimistic).
Quick question:
“3.1.1. Practical laws exist which would, if followed, preclude dangerous AI. 100% (recall this is optimistically-biased, but I do tentatively think this is likely, having drafted such a law).”
Can you share (a link to) the law you drafted?