Those with the right kind of difficult-to-access information or who trust the relevant “expert” class will assign it an extremely low probability.
Those without that information who either don’t know or don’t trust the relevant expert class may assign it a more reasonable probability or even believe it.
The claim is false.
(?) The claim is non-trivial, if true, it would have wide-reaching implications.
So claims to have a perpetual motion machine are bunk because to understand how unlikely they are you either have to understand some physics or trust physicists. Many people do not have that information and do not trust physicists (or aren’t aware that physicists even have a position on this, or aren’t aware there are such people as physicists). And perpetual motion machines are impossible.
One issue I can see arising a lot is that not every claim will have an obvious class of experts. Once upon a time the expert class for the question of whether or not God exists was theologians. But perhaps the right expert class today is analytic philosophers where theists are a shrinking minority (under 15%). Or maybe cognitive scientists or anthropologists (whose beliefs I don’t know).
I think we ought to distinguish somehow between crackpots (believers in bunk) and incorrect contrarians. The former are obviously part of the latter but are they the same? It seems to me that even if Eliezer Yudkowsky is really wrong about a lot that he believes (and this seems possible to me) he is nonetheless not a crackpot. But is there more to this than ‘crackpots are incorrect contrarians who I don’t like or have never agreed with’? Is there an objective distinction? Perhaps because he is ignored rather than rejected?
I think we ought to distinguish somehow between crackpots (believers in bunk) and incorrect contrarians. The former are obviously part of the latter but are they the same?
You ignore the possibility of crackpots who are not contrarians, but instead well established or even dominant in the mainstream. You have a very rosy view of academia if you believe that this phenomenon is entirely nonexistent nowadays!
That said, I’d say the main defining criterion of crackpots—as opposed to ordinary mistaken folks—is that their emotions have got the better of them, rendering them incapable of further rational argument. A true crackpot views the prospect of changing his mind as treachery to his cause, similar to a soldier scorning the possibility of surrender after suffering years of pain, hardship, and danger in a war. Trouble is, protracted intellectual battles in which contrarians are exposed to hostility and ridicule often push them beyond the edge of crackpottery at some point. It’s a pity because smart contrarians, even when mistaken about their main point, can often reveal serious weaknesses in the mainstream view. But then this is often why they are met with such hostility in the first place, especially in fields with political/ideological implications.
You ignore the possibility of crackpots who are not contrarians, but instead well established or even dominant in the mainstream. You have a very rosy view of academia if you believe that this phenomenon is entirely nonexistent nowadays!
Er. I think there are plenty of people in academia who have very wrong beliefs with poor justifications. But I took our working definition of crackpot and bunk to exclude such people. We’re asking about a particular kind of being wrong: being wrong and unpopular. The question is, is there something beyond that to being a crackpot. Must you also, say, engage in pseudoscience, be non-falsifiable, or engage in unsavory tactics etc. Obviously we don’t want to debate definitions, but I think the claim that you picked out is true given the way we’ve been using the words in this thread.
But I took our working definition of crackpot and bunk to exclude such people. We’re asking about a particular kind of being wrong: being wrong and unpopular.
Fair enough, if we define “crackpot” as necessarily unpopular. However, what primarily comes to my mind when I hear this word is the warlike emotional state that renders one incapable of changing one’s mind, which I described in the above comment. If people like that manage to grab positions of power in the academia and don the cloak of respectability, I still think that they share more relevant similarity with various scorned crackpot contrarians than with people whose mainstream respectability is well earned.
I think a good test for a crackpot vs. an ordinary mistaken contrarian would be how this individual would behave if the power relations were suddenly reversed, and the mainstream and contrarian views changed places. A crackpot would not hesitate to use his power to extirpate the views he dislikes with all means available, whereas an non-crackpot contrarian would show at least some respect for his (now contrarian) opponents.
“It seems to me that even if Eliezer Yudkowsky is really wrong about a lot that he believes (and this seems possible to me) he is nonetheless not a crackpot. But is there more to this than ‘crackpots are incorrect contrarians who I don’t like or have never agreed with’? Is there an objective distinction? Perhaps because he is ignored rather than rejected?”
Also a question I don’t know the answer to. I wrote this post partly in response to my worries about Eliezer (and certain other autodidacts) whom I perceive not to be crackpots. Does that perception weigh in their favor, or only confirm me to be a fellow crackpot? I’m still trying to figure out what a crackpot is.
Also a question I don’t know the answer to. I wrote this post partly in response to my worries about Eliezer (and certain other autodidacts) whom I perceive not to be crackpots. Does that perception weigh in their favor, or only confirm me to be a fellow crackpot? I’m still trying to figure out what a crackpot is.
If you find yourself worrying whether a certain label applies to you, rather than wondering whether a specific set of claims are more or less likely to be true, be careful; social fears can easily derail the rational evaluation of evidence.
The question “What is bunk?” seems nigh unanswerable, a search for a dictionary definition to fill in a hanging node. Thinking in terms of “what class of claims can I dismiss as too unlikely on the face of it, and what claims have a high enough chance of truth that they’re worth investigating?” is more realistic, IMO.
So a claim is bunk if and only if:
Those with the right kind of difficult-to-access information or who trust the relevant “expert” class will assign it an extremely low probability.
Those without that information who either don’t know or don’t trust the relevant expert class may assign it a more reasonable probability or even believe it.
The claim is false.
(?) The claim is non-trivial, if true, it would have wide-reaching implications.
So claims to have a perpetual motion machine are bunk because to understand how unlikely they are you either have to understand some physics or trust physicists. Many people do not have that information and do not trust physicists (or aren’t aware that physicists even have a position on this, or aren’t aware there are such people as physicists). And perpetual motion machines are impossible.
One issue I can see arising a lot is that not every claim will have an obvious class of experts. Once upon a time the expert class for the question of whether or not God exists was theologians. But perhaps the right expert class today is analytic philosophers where theists are a shrinking minority (under 15%). Or maybe cognitive scientists or anthropologists (whose beliefs I don’t know).
I think we ought to distinguish somehow between crackpots (believers in bunk) and incorrect contrarians. The former are obviously part of the latter but are they the same? It seems to me that even if Eliezer Yudkowsky is really wrong about a lot that he believes (and this seems possible to me) he is nonetheless not a crackpot. But is there more to this than ‘crackpots are incorrect contrarians who I don’t like or have never agreed with’? Is there an objective distinction? Perhaps because he is ignored rather than rejected?
Jack:
You ignore the possibility of crackpots who are not contrarians, but instead well established or even dominant in the mainstream. You have a very rosy view of academia if you believe that this phenomenon is entirely nonexistent nowadays!
That said, I’d say the main defining criterion of crackpots—as opposed to ordinary mistaken folks—is that their emotions have got the better of them, rendering them incapable of further rational argument. A true crackpot views the prospect of changing his mind as treachery to his cause, similar to a soldier scorning the possibility of surrender after suffering years of pain, hardship, and danger in a war. Trouble is, protracted intellectual battles in which contrarians are exposed to hostility and ridicule often push them beyond the edge of crackpottery at some point. It’s a pity because smart contrarians, even when mistaken about their main point, can often reveal serious weaknesses in the mainstream view. But then this is often why they are met with such hostility in the first place, especially in fields with political/ideological implications.
Er. I think there are plenty of people in academia who have very wrong beliefs with poor justifications. But I took our working definition of crackpot and bunk to exclude such people. We’re asking about a particular kind of being wrong: being wrong and unpopular. The question is, is there something beyond that to being a crackpot. Must you also, say, engage in pseudoscience, be non-falsifiable, or engage in unsavory tactics etc. Obviously we don’t want to debate definitions, but I think the claim that you picked out is true given the way we’ve been using the words in this thread.
Your point about emotions is a good one.
Fair enough, if we define “crackpot” as necessarily unpopular. However, what primarily comes to my mind when I hear this word is the warlike emotional state that renders one incapable of changing one’s mind, which I described in the above comment. If people like that manage to grab positions of power in the academia and don the cloak of respectability, I still think that they share more relevant similarity with various scorned crackpot contrarians than with people whose mainstream respectability is well earned.
I think a good test for a crackpot vs. an ordinary mistaken contrarian would be how this individual would behave if the power relations were suddenly reversed, and the mainstream and contrarian views changed places. A crackpot would not hesitate to use his power to extirpate the views he dislikes with all means available, whereas an non-crackpot contrarian would show at least some respect for his (now contrarian) opponents.
“It seems to me that even if Eliezer Yudkowsky is really wrong about a lot that he believes (and this seems possible to me) he is nonetheless not a crackpot. But is there more to this than ‘crackpots are incorrect contrarians who I don’t like or have never agreed with’? Is there an objective distinction? Perhaps because he is ignored rather than rejected?”
Also a question I don’t know the answer to. I wrote this post partly in response to my worries about Eliezer (and certain other autodidacts) whom I perceive not to be crackpots. Does that perception weigh in their favor, or only confirm me to be a fellow crackpot? I’m still trying to figure out what a crackpot is.
If you find yourself worrying whether a certain label applies to you, rather than wondering whether a specific set of claims are more or less likely to be true, be careful; social fears can easily derail the rational evaluation of evidence.
The question “What is bunk?” seems nigh unanswerable, a search for a dictionary definition to fill in a hanging node. Thinking in terms of “what class of claims can I dismiss as too unlikely on the face of it, and what claims have a high enough chance of truth that they’re worth investigating?” is more realistic, IMO.
The Crackpot Index is a good place to start.