Last November, I wrote a blog post titled You should consider applying to PhDs (soon!), where I argued it is probably a good use of time for junior AI safety researchers (e.g. people who have recently participated in an upskilling or research program like ARENA or MATS) to apply to PhDs in the current cycle, even if they are on the fence about whether they want to do a PhD.
My core arguments were that academic timelines are very slow (i.e. if you apply this year you would not start until Fall 2026), applications are generally cheap and high information value, and that applying strictly increases your future optionality. I applied to PhDs two years ago, got several offers, did not end up doing a PhD, but still post-hoc endorse spending time on this.
My post last year was very late relative to deadlines; you should probably start thinking about applications soon in order to gather the required application materials (e.g. asking for references) for the December 15th deadlines.
applications are generally cheap and high information value
They’re cheap but not that cheap. I did mine in a rush last year (thanks to Bilal’s encouragement) and it still took me at least two weeks of basically full time effort and that is much faster than normal. It also costs like $1000 or more to do a dozen applications.
Also you don’t get much information. You buy a few lottery tickets. The number that come back winners is a weak signal of how good your application was.
Above some P(you want to do a PhD), I claim this is cheap, given it could effect the next 1-6 years of your life. I think I agree with you that you need to be at something like at least 25% (discussed offline) or so here already to actually commit to doing the applications. But I think your probability can be lower for spending some smaller amount of time “considering” applying.
Also you don’t get much information. You buy a few lottery tickets. The number that come back winners is a weak signal of how good your application was.
Mostly agreed. The information I think you get is whether a PhD is a good option for you. It forces you to think through the prospect and you get to chat to PhD students and professors through the process. I updated positively on PhDs after applying through this process.
Consider applying to PhDs soon!
Last November, I wrote a blog post titled You should consider applying to PhDs (soon!), where I argued it is probably a good use of time for junior AI safety researchers (e.g. people who have recently participated in an upskilling or research program like ARENA or MATS) to apply to PhDs in the current cycle, even if they are on the fence about whether they want to do a PhD.
My core arguments were that academic timelines are very slow (i.e. if you apply this year you would not start until Fall 2026), applications are generally cheap and high information value, and that applying strictly increases your future optionality. I applied to PhDs two years ago, got several offers, did not end up doing a PhD, but still post-hoc endorse spending time on this.
My post last year was very late relative to deadlines; you should probably start thinking about applications soon in order to gather the required application materials (e.g. asking for references) for the December 15th deadlines.
They’re cheap but not that cheap. I did mine in a rush last year (thanks to Bilal’s encouragement) and it still took me at least two weeks of basically full time effort and that is much faster than normal. It also costs like $1000 or more to do a dozen applications.
Also you don’t get much information. You buy a few lottery tickets. The number that come back winners is a weak signal of how good your application was.
[Edit: I still am glad that I applied!]
Above some P(you want to do a PhD), I claim this is cheap, given it could effect the next 1-6 years of your life. I think I agree with you that you need to be at something like at least 25% (discussed offline) or so here already to actually commit to doing the applications. But I think your probability can be lower for spending some smaller amount of time “considering” applying.
Mostly agreed. The information I think you get is whether a PhD is a good option for you. It forces you to think through the prospect and you get to chat to PhD students and professors through the process. I updated positively on PhDs after applying through this process.