Above some P(you want to do a PhD), I claim this is cheap, given it could effect the next 1-6 years of your life. I think I agree with you that you need to be at something like at least 25% (discussed offline) or so here already to actually commit to doing the applications. But I think your probability can be lower for spending some smaller amount of time “considering” applying.
Also you don’t get much information. You buy a few lottery tickets. The number that come back winners is a weak signal of how good your application was.
Mostly agreed. The information I think you get is whether a PhD is a good option for you. It forces you to think through the prospect and you get to chat to PhD students and professors through the process. I updated positively on PhDs after applying through this process.
Above some P(you want to do a PhD), I claim this is cheap, given it could effect the next 1-6 years of your life. I think I agree with you that you need to be at something like at least 25% (discussed offline) or so here already to actually commit to doing the applications. But I think your probability can be lower for spending some smaller amount of time “considering” applying.
Mostly agreed. The information I think you get is whether a PhD is a good option for you. It forces you to think through the prospect and you get to chat to PhD students and professors through the process. I updated positively on PhDs after applying through this process.