Penetrating NATO airspace with small Shahed style drones is easy and can cause a lot of damage.
Sufficient damage would lead to massive NATO retaliation though. Russian air defense systems are stretched thin as is. NATO air forces could suppress what’s left and bomb with impunity. Plausibly NATO just bombs the drone factories and some other military targets.
Building enough air defenses to stop massed drone attacks is very costly. Deterrence through retaliation is cheaper than building lots of hard kill and jamming systems.
Russia is poking NATO in various ways but a shooting war would go very badly for them.
Regarding nukes, yes, they’re scary but if Russia starts bombing NATO cities or military targets on a large scale NATO will retaliate regardless of nuclear brinksmanship.
China
The China Taiwan thing depends on China’s goals. They’re not getting TSMC. Taiwan will go scorched earth on that to say nothing of ASML remote killswitches on production equipment. If the goal is to destroy the semiconductor supply chain, why bother? Blockade accomplishes the same thing with slightly less political fallout.
Whether China has an easier or harder time with a land war to take and hold the Island has little to do with the things western powers care about (semiconductor supply chain). Yes, drones help with taking and holding Taiwan and china can make a lot of them.
Aside from Taiwan, I just don’t see China as wanting to start a land war to take a neighboring country.
Longer term
TLDR:Modern cheap drones are not stealthy in audio, thermal or radar so systems already developed by western military suppliers can take down cheap drones at low cost and in large numbers.
Hard kill anti drone systems seem likely to work. Infantry in Ukraine are using shotguns currently but automated gun turrets with fast tracking and full auto cannons firing rimless shotguns rounds should work. Air-burst electronically fused shells also exist and are cheap to produce in quantity for longer range. Working systems exist and can be purchased from western suppliers.
That’s in addition to all the Gun turret + sensors + software solutions like the EOS slinger also being sent to Ukraine.
Tactical rock paper scissors still applies. The anti drone system can’t stop incoming artillery rounds(though with enough range, the spotting UAVs die), direct fire from an enemy tanks or certain kinds of fast missiles. Drones aren’t the only threat on the battlefield.
Limited supply of effective hard kill systems is the issue right now. A good hard kill system will eat drone swarms all day (assuming ammo supply holds out and reloading is fast)
Much longer term
Active protection systems and counter UAS converges to use fast tracking gun mounts and airburst munitions. This is also effective against infantry including infantry behind cover. Perhaps some limited indirect fire capability. Things get even worse for infantry on the future battlefield.
One side gets more bang/buck by spending to develop more cost effective weapons (UAS, UGV, etc.). Live fire exercises to get performance data + lots of simulation becomes the norm. Fewer unknowns like morale. This over determines the winner in potential conflicts.
Large military bases and civilian infrastructure generally remain hard to protect. Defender has to harden every possible target. Retaliation/deterrence is what stops others from just launching long range one way attack drones at cities.
Interceptors might solve this problem but prospect of retaliation is enough.
Terrorism
Weaponised drone technology could proliferate and solve the “deliver payload” problem but control of explosives is doing most of the work already. Terrorists can already plant remote or time detonated bombs. CF:gwern’s excellent Terrorism is not about terror post. Don’t expect huge issues there. High value targets like politicians and CEOs will have to worry about small UAVs that don’t need a large payload in addition to snipers. Mostly no impact on general public.
Penetrating NATO airspace with small Shahed style drones is easy and can cause a lot of damage.
Sufficient damage would lead to massive NATO retaliation though. Russian air defense systems are stretched thin as is. NATO air forces could suppress what’s left and bomb with impunity. Plausibly NATO just bombs the drone factories and some other military targets.
Building enough air defenses to stop massed drone attacks is very costly. Deterrence through retaliation is cheaper than building lots of hard kill and jamming systems.
Russia is poking NATO in various ways but a shooting war would go very badly for them.
Regarding nukes, yes, they’re scary but if Russia starts bombing NATO cities or military targets on a large scale NATO will retaliate regardless of nuclear brinksmanship.
China
The China Taiwan thing depends on China’s goals. They’re not getting TSMC. Taiwan will go scorched earth on that to say nothing of ASML remote killswitches on production equipment. If the goal is to destroy the semiconductor supply chain, why bother? Blockade accomplishes the same thing with slightly less political fallout.
Whether China has an easier or harder time with a land war to take and hold the Island has little to do with the things western powers care about (semiconductor supply chain). Yes, drones help with taking and holding Taiwan and china can make a lot of them.
Aside from Taiwan, I just don’t see China as wanting to start a land war to take a neighboring country.
Longer term
TLDR:Modern cheap drones are not stealthy in audio, thermal or radar so systems already developed by western military suppliers can take down cheap drones at low cost and in large numbers.
Hard kill anti drone systems seem likely to work. Infantry in Ukraine are using shotguns currently but automated gun turrets with fast tracking and full auto cannons firing rimless shotguns rounds should work. Air-burst electronically fused shells also exist and are cheap to produce in quantity for longer range. Working systems exist and can be purchased from western suppliers.
Ukraine is getting some Rheinmetall Skyranger 35s soon
That’s in addition to all the Gun turret + sensors + software solutions like the EOS slinger also being sent to Ukraine.
Tactical rock paper scissors still applies. The anti drone system can’t stop incoming artillery rounds(though with enough range, the spotting UAVs die), direct fire from an enemy tanks or certain kinds of fast missiles. Drones aren’t the only threat on the battlefield.
Limited supply of effective hard kill systems is the issue right now. A good hard kill system will eat drone swarms all day (assuming ammo supply holds out and reloading is fast)
Much longer term
Active protection systems and counter UAS converges to use fast tracking gun mounts and airburst munitions. This is also effective against infantry including infantry behind cover. Perhaps some limited indirect fire capability. Things get even worse for infantry on the future battlefield.
One side gets more bang/buck by spending to develop more cost effective weapons (UAS, UGV, etc.). Live fire exercises to get performance data + lots of simulation becomes the norm. Fewer unknowns like morale. This over determines the winner in potential conflicts.
Large military bases and civilian infrastructure generally remain hard to protect. Defender has to harden every possible target. Retaliation/deterrence is what stops others from just launching long range one way attack drones at cities.
Interceptors might solve this problem but prospect of retaliation is enough.
Terrorism
Weaponised drone technology could proliferate and solve the “deliver payload” problem but control of explosives is doing most of the work already. Terrorists can already plant remote or time detonated bombs. CF:gwern’s excellent Terrorism is not about terror post. Don’t expect huge issues there. High value targets like politicians and CEOs will have to worry about small UAVs that don’t need a large payload in addition to snipers. Mostly no impact on general public.