I think all those points are probably correct and most of the answer.
Another contributing factor is in the single-use nature of kamikazee style drones. I have this strong intuition from boardgames and computer games that kamikazees are defensive. A battle ending in ‘Everything on both sides is dead’ is a kind of succrsful defense
As a toy example, lets say that a force of 100 tanks can defeat an enemy force of 10 tanks with only one lost. (So 99 remain). This allows a focussed army to snowball, maintaining momentum.
But, if 100 drones take 10 casualties to destroy an enemy force of 10 drones. Then any offensive peters out as the larger army errodes down.
I suppose put another way, the power of an army is at best linear in ammo, probably sub-linear. But its often going to be super-linear (approaching quadraric) in units. Drones are more like ammo, they get expended. The attacker likes super-linear, it allows a snowball effect, it gives them something to counter the natural ways defenders are advantaged.
I think all those points are probably correct and most of the answer.
Another contributing factor is in the single-use nature of kamikazee style drones. I have this strong intuition from boardgames and computer games that kamikazees are defensive. A battle ending in ‘Everything on both sides is dead’ is a kind of succrsful defense
As a toy example, lets say that a force of 100 tanks can defeat an enemy force of 10 tanks with only one lost. (So 99 remain). This allows a focussed army to snowball, maintaining momentum.
But, if 100 drones take 10 casualties to destroy an enemy force of 10 drones. Then any offensive peters out as the larger army errodes down.
I suppose put another way, the power of an army is at best linear in ammo, probably sub-linear. But its often going to be super-linear (approaching quadraric) in units. Drones are more like ammo, they get expended. The attacker likes super-linear, it allows a snowball effect, it gives them something to counter the natural ways defenders are advantaged.