Comparing to your post GPT-5 update, it reads like you have shorter timelines than you did at the start of 2025? (This contrasts to the AI Futures model authors whose timelines are now in between their initial and q4 numbers).
What doubling rate and deployment time to AI automation after 1 month 80% reliability are you now assuming? Naively, if I use a 80% reliability 125 day doubling time (which is the current trendline to opus 4.6 using logistic fixed slope), that would get us to 1-month 80% in Feb 2029. That’s only about 6 months sooner than your GPT-5 update post. And yet, you’ve moved back your median for full AI automation by 2 years. Are you assuming a faster jump from 1 month to full AI automation now or an even faster doubling time regime from 2025?
Comparing to your post GPT-5 update, it reads like you have shorter timelines than you did at the start of 2025? (This contrasts to the AI Futures model authors whose timelines are now in between their initial and q4 numbers).
What doubling rate and deployment time to AI automation after 1 month 80% reliability are you now assuming? Naively, if I use a 80% reliability 125 day doubling time (which is the current trendline to opus 4.6 using logistic fixed slope), that would get us to 1-month 80% in Feb 2029. That’s only about 6 months sooner than your GPT-5 update post. And yet, you’ve moved back your median for full AI automation by 2 years. Are you assuming a faster jump from 1 month to full AI automation now or an even faster doubling time regime from 2025?
I’ve updated towards faster progress, more acceleration from AIs, and superexponential time horizon progress earlier.
I plan on saying more in a new post.I say more in this post. (And see this other comment.)