Dario Amodei says AI will be writing 90% of the code in 6 months and almost all the code in 12 months. I am with Arthur B here, I expect a lot of progress and change very soon but I would still take the other side of that bet. The catch is: I don’t see the benefit to Anthropic of running the hype machine in overdrive on this, at this time, unless Dario actually believed it.
Which means that, if this does not in fact happen in 3-6 months, it should be taken as evidence that there’s some unknown-to-us reason for Anthropic to be running the hype machine in this way, and we should therefore update towards their “AGI by 2026-2027” forecasts likewise failing.
Not a strong update: obviously this is just something Dario said “on the run” whereas the 2026-2027 figure is (presumably) the result of careful consideration by the whole Anthropic team, and he might not have a good model of how slow technological adoption is but still have a good model of the roadmap to AGI, etc.
Still, this is incremental evidence towards “Dario do be running his mouth on AI progress”.
I don’t expect 90% of code in 6 months and more confidently don’t expect “almost all” in 12 months for a reasonable interpretation of almost all. However, I think this prediction is also weaker than it might seem, see my comment here.
The update to my timelines this would cause isn’t a direct “AI is advancing faster than I expected”, but an indirect “Dario makes a statement about AI progress that seems overly ambitious and clearly wrong to me, but is then proven right, which suggests he may have a better idea of what’s going on than me in other places as well, and my skepticism regarding his other overambitious-seeming statements is now more likely to be incorrect”.
Which means that, if this does not in fact happen in 3-6 months, it should be taken as evidence that there’s some unknown-to-us reason for Anthropic to be running the hype machine in this way, and we should therefore update towards their “AGI by 2026-2027” forecasts likewise failing.
Not a strong update: obviously this is just something Dario said “on the run” whereas the 2026-2027 figure is (presumably) the result of careful consideration by the whole Anthropic team, and he might not have a good model of how slow technological adoption is but still have a good model of the roadmap to AGI, etc.
Still, this is incremental evidence towards “Dario do be running his mouth on AI progress”.
I don’t expect 90% of code in 6 months and more confidently don’t expect “almost all” in 12 months for a reasonable interpretation of almost all. However, I think this prediction is also weaker than it might seem, see my comment here.
Yup, agreed.
The update to my timelines this would cause isn’t a direct “AI is advancing faster than I expected”, but an indirect “Dario makes a statement about AI progress that seems overly ambitious and clearly wrong to me, but is then proven right, which suggests he may have a better idea of what’s going on than me in other places as well, and my skepticism regarding his other overambitious-seeming statements is now more likely to be incorrect”.