I would propose one additional condition: If there evidence of a deliberate or coordinated slowdown on AGI development by the major labs, then the bet is voided. I don’t expect there will be such a slowdown, but I’d rather not be invested in it not happening.
The recent announcement that OpenAI had GPT-4 since last August, but spent the intervening time evaluating it, instead of releasing it, constitutes a “deliberate slowdown” by a “major lab”. Do you require that multiple labs slow down before the bet is voided?
I am also willing to take your bet for 2030.
I would propose one additional condition: If there evidence of a deliberate or coordinated slowdown on AGI development by the major labs, then the bet is voided. I don’t expect there will be such a slowdown, but I’d rather not be invested in it not happening.
The recent announcement that OpenAI had GPT-4 since last August, but spent the intervening time evaluating it, instead of releasing it, constitutes a “deliberate slowdown” by a “major lab”. Do you require that multiple labs slow down before the bet is voided?
Hmm good question. The OpenAI GPT-4 case is complicated in my mind. It kind of looks to me like their approach was:
Move really fast to develop a next-gen model
Take some months to study, test and tweak the model before releasing it
Since it’s fast and slow together, I’m confused about whether it constitutes a deliberate slowdown. I’m curious about your and other people’s takes.